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It’s time for Toyota to rethink its hydrogen strategy
The company’s new CEO needs to commit to a 100% electric
vehicle future
March 31, 2023
By DAVID
CEBON
A hydrogen power station and a Toyota Mirai. Photo:
Wikimedia Commons
There’s a price war happening in the EV market,
as volumes and the number of models surge. Tesla recently dropped the
price of its Model 3 sedan to almost US$5,000 less than the average
new car cost. A new electric Chevy Bolt starts at under $27,000.
Meanwhile Toyota’s hydrogen-fueled Mirai model starts at more than
$50,000.
Hydrogen harder for consumers to adopt
Toyota has also cast doubt on electric vehicles by claiming the
charging infrastructure is not ready.
In fact, most EV drivers plug in at home. Moreover, public charging
infrastructure is booming and widespread in the major car markets of
China, the US and Europe. In this comparison, hydrogen is again the
loser, with very little refueling infrastructure outside of
California, and some hydrogen fueling stations in the UK being shut
down.
EVs can piggyback on existing electricity grids in all developed
countries, and even countries currently lacking reliable grids have
achievable plans to build them. But national hydrogen refueling
infrastructure remains a pipe dream even for wealthy nations.
Why does all this matter? Because hydrogen is distracting from, and
delaying progress on, decarbonization.
The need to wait perpetually for further research and development on
hydrogen cars before they become commercially viable is a considerable
downside. But a cynic could argue that’s the main point of this
technology, for any incumbents keen to prolong their main business of
selling combustion-engine cars.
Experts in this field, such as the founder of BloombergNEF Michael
Liebreich, have also voiced this concern. Every year that governments
and consumers wait for hydrogen cars, Toyota adds more than 9 million
combustion cars to the roads.
Even if we wait until the end of this decade, S&P Global Mobility data
forecast that Toyota will still only sell around 8,000 hydrogen cars
in 2029 – about one thousandth of its projected annual
combustion-engine vehicle sales of well over 10 million.
Toyota’s world-class engineers undoubtedly understand all of the above
already. The company’s bullish hydrogen stance is probably more about
marketing than engineering.
But as regulators and the public grow less accepting of greenwashing,
this type of marketing tactic is on its last legs.
It is in the interests of Toyota, its investors, the planet and the
increasingly climate-concerned public that new CEO Koji Sato axes the
company’s futile plans for hydrogen cars on his first day, and commits
to a 100% electric future.
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
exactrix@exactrix.com
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