The revolutions in power generation and vehicle technology are gaining
momentum, and given the climate crisis, they can’t come too soon.
Last year, renewables generated more electricity in the United States
than coal for the first time, according to the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA). US electric car sales, meanwhile, jumped 65%
compared to 2021, while overall car sales last year declined from the
previous year. Electric vehicles (EVs) accounted for 5.8% of all new
cars sold in 2022, an increase from 3.1% in 2021, and in February,
they accounted for 8.5% of total auto sales.
Projections of how quickly these transformations will advance have
become more bullish over the years. A decade ago, the Department of
Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) estimated that,
based on the available technology, the United States could get 80% of
its electricity from renewables by 2050. Now NREL says the country has
the potential to reach 100% clean energy by 2035. And as recently as
six years ago, EVs were considered a niche technology (and the
billionaire Koch brothers and their network wanted to keep it that
way). Today, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) anticipates that
at least 50 percent of US passenger car sales will be electric by
2030.
But don’t get too excited, at least not yet. There’s no guarantee that
there will be a smooth transition to a clean energy economy or that US
drivers will overwhelmingly embrace EVs in the coming decade. There
are a lot of challenges to overcome.
For example, the US power grid is outdated. Most of it was built 50 to
60 years ago, and it was not designed to handle wind and solar energy.
It was designed to run on oil, coal and fossil gas, which is typically
transported by rail or pipeline and then burned in power plants sited
in and around cities. By contrast, the places where wind and sunlight
are the strongest are not necessarily anywhere near cities, where
demand is the highest. That’s especially the case for the windiest
wind. Solar panels always can go on top of buildings. The bottom line,
the entire US transmission system will have to be transformed.
Likewise, infrastructure is an issue for EVs. Currently there more
than 160,000 public EV chargers across the country, according to the
analysis firm S&P Global Mobility. That’s a good start, but if the EV
market share for new vehicles does reach 50 percent by 2030, the more
than 35 million EVs on the road will need a lot more. And then there’s
the demand all of those EVs will have on the electric grid—as well as
the potential they will have to sustain the grid. Indeed, the future
of the electric grid and the future of EVs are symbiotically
interconnected.
To get a better idea of what needs to be done to make these absolutely
necessary revolutions succeed, I got in touch with two of my
colleagues here at UCS: Sam Gomberg, the transmission policy manager
in our Climate and Energy Program, who focuses on clean energy
integration and grid modernization issues; and Samantha Houston, a
senior vehicles analyst in our Clean Transportation Program, who pays
close attention to EV infrastructure and vehicle-grid integration. I
started the conversation with Gomberg.
EN: Let’s talk a bit about the state of the US electricity grid. As
climate change-related extreme weather events have become more
frequent, blackouts have become more frequent. In 2021, the average
ratepayer suffered more than seven hours without power. More than five
of those hours were due to major extreme weather events, including
hurricanes, wildfires and snowstorms, according to the EIA’s most
recent annual power industry report. By contrast, between 2013 and
2016, the average customer outage was only three to four hours per
year, and only about half of those hours were attributable to an
extreme weather event.
SG: The impact of climate change-driven extreme weather events
continues to be one of the biggest blind spots for the wide range of
stakeholders—utilities, state utility commissions, grid operators and
the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)—that are responsible
for planning, building and operating the electricity transmission
system. We’re seeing the effects of that. And as big a risk as climate
change is to the system’s reliability, it’s just one of several
transformative changes underway that the transmission system is going
to have to adapt to in the coming years. Decarbonizing and
electrifying multiple economic sectors simultaneously, addressing
systemic inequities, dealing with increasingly complex cybersecurity
risks, and—on top of all of that, protecting the grid from climate
change disasters. It’s a lot.
While there are certainly some bright spots around the country,
collectively we are playing catch up when it comes to investing in a
21st century grid that will accommodate all of this change and do it
efficiently and reliably. We need better, more transparent processes;
better modeling and forecasting tools; and much better coordination
across regions to get this done. At the same time, we need to move
with unprecedented speed. It’s a monumental task, but it’s absolutely
doable.
EN: Since the Biden administration took office, Congress has passed
an infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act, both which
include provisions to strengthen and modernize the grid. What will
those provisions do, and will they be enough?
SG: Infrastructure bill and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funding
runs the gamut, from grid investments to strengthen system resilience
and connect it to clean energy, to competitive grant programs for new
innovative solutions, grid planning technical assistance, and
community outreach. It’s a historic investment in the nation’s
electrical grid, but no, it won’t be enough. It was never meant to be.
The goal is to accelerate private sector investment, not supplant it.
If implemented effectively, the two new laws will certainly finance a
number of critical grid investments that will build system resilience
and integrate another wave of clean energy. There’s upward of $20
billion for that. But the full suite of programs will help build an
infrastructure (pun intended) of more efficient planning, regulatory
frameworks, and financing options that will encourage a much larger
scale of investment.
EN: There are seven regional grid operators across the country. Are
they taking the necessary steps to make sure the country will be able
to transition as quickly as possible from fossil fuels to renewables?
What do they need to do?
SG: It varies significantly from one operator to another. There
are four areas where grid operators are focused to varying degrees:
enabling new energy resources to connect, planning and approving grid
investments, reliably operating the existing grid, and administering
the energy markets where utilities buy energy to meet customer demand.
Regional grid operators may be industry leaders in one area but
lagging in others. For example, the Mid-Continent Independent System
Operator (MISO) is widely considered an industry leader in planning
and investing in the transmission system, but it is way behind in
figuring out how to integrate battery storage and rooftop solar into
the mix. Meanwhile, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)
is typically ahead of the other six grid operators because state
policies have forced it to confront these challenges sooner rather
than later. There are lessons to be learned from CAISO, both good and
bad. The one thing that none of the operators seem to do very well is
coordinate and collaborate with each other. And that’s a problem.
Ultimately every regional grid operator will have to plan proactively
and make investments with an eye toward the transition that is already
underway. That will include integrating an enormous amount of new
clean energy resources in the coming years while allowing fossil fuels
to drop out of the system. It also will include responding to all that
is happening on the demand side of the equation due to building
electrification, new tech and industrial demands, and widespread
electric vehicle adoption—the three main demand-side drivers that will
either provide huge opportunities or huge challenges depending on how
proactive grid operators are.
EN: What about transmission lines? As I mentioned in my
introduction, the grid will need new transmission lines to deliver
electricity from far-flung renewables to the places that need it most.
But it takes a long time to construct new lines. Between 2013 and
2020, they expanded only about 1% a year.
SG: Yes, as I said earlier, we have to move at an unprecedented
pace to accelerate the clean energy transition and meet our
decarbonization goals. But it is not uncommon for it to take 10 years
to approve and build a new transmission project. That said, several
projects can move forward at the same time if the planning, regulatory
and approval process is designed correctly. And if it takes 10 years
to build new grid infrastructure, then it will be critical to make
sure investments are preparing the country for that future and not
just putting a Band-Aid on today’s problems.
Where is the country going to be in 10 years when it comes to rooftop
solar, or electric vehicles, or such new industries as battery
storage? What will be the pace and scale of the clean energy
transition? These are the questions we need to ask so that we’re
right-sizing the grid of the future, making smart investments today,
and not constantly playing catch up, like we are now. The
infrastructure act and the IRA will give this transition a boost, but
whether public and private sector players will be able to maintain
that momentum is a key question. If the country is going to meet the
challenge of powering a 21st century economy with a 21st century clean
energy grid, they will have to.
EN: That brings us to EVs and the grid. Samantha, as you know,
California—which has the largest car market in the country—is way
ahead of everybody else. Last August, the state’s Air Resources Board
adopted regulations requiring all new passenger car sales to be
electric by 2035, and the 16 states and the District of Columbia that
follow California’s lead on vehicle emission standards may follow
suit. Altogether, California and its fellow travelers represent 43% of
new car sales. How will these new vehicle standards impact grid
planning? What will grid operators have to do to prepare?
SH: Grid operators have to plan and implement generation,
transmission and distribution infrastructure to meet the energy needs
of the EVs that will be on the road. California’s clean car standards
give grid operators a forecast for which to plan. It is particularly
important that they get their transmission and generation plans going
in earnest for projects that have long lead times.
That planning also should include a more nimble, real-time approach to
matching energy supply and demand. With more EVs, renewables, and
other distributed energy resources, both supply and demand will be
more variable throughout the day and day-to-day. Grid operators will
have to rise to this new challenge.
In addition to the grid investments Sam mentioned, the infrastructure
law and the IRA provide funding and incentives for EV charging
stations. That support will help ensure that the infrastructure needed
to encourage widespread EV adoption will be in place in the years to
come.
EN: The relationship between EVs and the grid is a two-way street.
EV owners could help stabilize the grid. How would that work?
SH: EV owners can support renewable energy integration and help
operators stabilize the grid by practicing “smart charging,” which is
also known as load management. Most EV drivers can be flexible about
when they charge their cars. If drivers started charging their cars
right after they got home from work, it would be exactly when the grid
has to ramp up quickly to meet peak energy demand. It would be much
better if drivers charged midday, when solar energy is abundant, or in
the middle of the night, when demand on the grid is lowest and wind
energy in some regions is plentiful. This one-directional vehicle-grid
integration is critically important. It benefits both the grid and EV
drivers, and there is no reason why all EV owners can’t practice smart
charging right now.
EN: In a column you wrote last fall, you pointed out that an EV is
a “battery on wheels.” Unlike a conventional gasoline-powered vehicle,
an EV can be used for other functions besides transporting a driver
from point A to point B.
SH: That’s right. In addition to smart charging, an EV can support
the grid by using the battery to export power directly to the grid or
to offset electricity demand that would otherwise be put on the grid,
such as plugging an appliance into an EV battery instead of a wall
socket.
EVs also can strengthen local resilience during outages, providing a
lifeline to backup power if the regional grid goes down. For example,
during an ice storm, hurricane, or public safety shutoff that has
knocked out power, an EV that is designed to export its stored energy
could provide power to a home or shelter until the electricity is
restored.
EN: But there are complications, no?
SH: Yes, there are complications. For some vehicles, it’s the
battery warranty, and some vehicles don’t come off the assembly line
with the capability to export power. Besides that, upgrades may be
required at a home or other places where a driver may want to export
power.
There’s a bill in play in the California Legislature—S.B. 233—that
addresses some of these potential stumbling blocks. It would require
all EVs and charging equipment to be capable of bidirectional charging
beginning in model year 2027 except where exempted by regulatory
agencies. If passed, the bill would provide an option for all EV
drivers to export power whenever they chose to do so.
Drivers whose EVs are not designed to export power to the grid yet may
still be able to help. Newer pickup truck utility model EVs, such as
the Ford F-150 Lightning and Rivian’s R1T, come with power outlets.
Without any additional setup, owners could use them to power an
appliance or tool at a home or worksite to offset the stress that
device would otherwise put on the grid.
These are just a few examples of the ways EVs can support—and be
supported by—the grid. Ideally, every EV driver or EV fleet operator
would practice vehicle-grid integration in some way, but not every EV
owner has to export power or be super-sophisticated about it. As I
noted earlier, relatively simple, smart charging would provide
benefits, and all EVs can do it now. EV drivers will need a variety of
tools and programs to choose from, so there’s an opportunity for all
EV owners to benefit and at the same time provide benefits to the grid
through vehicle-grid integration while still using their vehicles for
their main purpose—transportation.
EN: Finally, as you point out in your column, the best way to
protect the grid—and the planet—is reduce demand by getting people out
of their cars and trucks.
SH: Right. The best electric load is the load not
taken—electricity not used in the first place. A way to avoid some of
the increased demand expected from more EVs on the road is reducing
the total number of miles that we drive. To do that at a meaningful
scale, cities, states and the federal government need to enact
policies that enable drivers to put fewer miles on their cars and
trucks—or better still, own fewer cars and trucks—so that we need less
energy for transportation. That’s why investments in public transit
and infrastructure that increases mobility options, as well as less
car-centric city planning, are important strategies to meet
transportation energy needs. Besides smart charging, we need smart
growth.
By Elliott
Negin, Union
of Concerned Scientists’ The Equation
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
exactrix@exactrix.com
